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Is Chinese Hotel Stock Heading For A Fall?

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热度39票  浏览164次 【共0条评论】【我要评论 时间:2011年8月17日 11:31

  Can you say "volatility"?

  Home Inns and Hotels Management reports second quarter earnings Thursday after the market close.

  The ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) of the Chinese company were down 5.1% Wednesday. Tuesday, they were up 6.5%.

  From the July 24 low of $16.86 through Tuesday's close, the ADRs were up 36.6%. That's in two weeks.

  The Wall Street consensus is that the operator of the China's largest group of budget hotels will report earnings of 31 cents a share. That would be a 19.2% increase from the second quarter of 2011 and would mark a huge improvement on the loss of 9 cents a share that the company reported in the first quarter.

  I think the huge surge in the last two weeks was a bet that the company will meet or exceed those expectations. After all, even with the loss last quarter, the company reported 66% revenue growth year over year and beat Wall Street projections for revenue by a little more than 12%.

  After a surge of 37% in two weeks, it wouldn’t surprise me if the stock sold off after the earnings report on anything less than a miraculous beat. I think the drop Wednesday is an early indication of trader inclinations to do just that. If the company does report as expected and if the ADRs fall on that news, I would look to be a buyer here. The ADRs offer good exposure to the domestic Chinese consumer market and that’s the part of the Chinese economy I’d like to own over the next six months or longer.

  At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of Home Inns and Hotels Management as of the end of March. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here.

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